Prior beliefs overturned or newly pinned by the 2026-07-02 synthesis — all verified against live Gamma/CLOB/obs pulls (12:20–14:00Z). The verdicts that follow from these: weather-strategy-verdicts-2026-07-02. Detail: /Users/levander/coding/pmv2/research/weather-strategy-synthesis-2026-07-02.md.
1. Liquidity-rewards pools on weather EXIST
Prior belief "no LR on weather" was WRONG
467 temp markets carry
clobRewardswithrewardsDailyRate > 0: median 31k/day total**.
- Top city pools/day: seoul-lowest 1,010, LA 828, amsterdam 719, madrid $703.
- Params: min 20–50 shares, max spread 4.5c. Seoul highest-temp: no pool.
- 25% maker rebate applies (weather is fee-bearing,
feeType=weather_fees). - This is what makes the EU maker lane a real opportunity ( LR farming — PILOT after infra (the actual EU opportunity)).
2. Market universe ~7× bigger than backtested
- 48 cities with a Jul-2 highest-temp market (156 daily temp events; 11 buckets each) — 41 new vs the backtested set: US+8 (LA/SF/dallas/austin/houston/denver/seattle/toronto), EU+9 (munich/milan/madrid/warsaw/amsterdam/helsinki/moscow/istanbul/ankara), AS+15, other+9.
- Plus a lowest-temperature market series (8 cities) — overnight-min analog, morning lock, unexplored as a market surface.
Reconcile with the 2026-06-19 lowest-play NO-GO
The US lowest taker play was NO-GO’d (post-lock evening falls, nyc+miami backtest — see weather-bet-live-status). What’s new here is the series’ breadth (8 cities) and that seoul-lowest carries the single biggest LR pool ($1,200/day) — relevant for maker quoting, not for reviving the taker play.
3. Resolution stations pinned (engine-critical)
- paris = LFPB Le Bourget (NOT LFPG/CDG)
- london = EGLC London City (NOT Heathrow)
- nyc = KLGA; denver = Buckley SFB; seoul = RKSI Incheon
- Istanbul / Moscow / Tel-Aviv resolve via NOAA weather.gov timeseries, not Wunderground
- Hong Kong resolves via HKO at 0.1°C precision (unique; research-only testbed)
Consistent with the station table in weather-strategy-validated-plan — now live-verified per city and binding for any EU/AS engine.
4. fee_usd=0 ledger bug overstates live ROI
place_orderin position_manager hard-codesfee_usd = 0(lib.rs ~L521) → live weather ROI overstated ~0.45–0.67%/side.- True fee =
0.05·p·(1−p)of notional (~0.64% at p=0.85). - Build #1: fix before any pilot scoring — the US pilot’s pass gate is meaningless without it.
5. api.weather.com public web key polls the WU resolution truth directly
- ~30-min cadence, every city — eliminates WU-vs-METAR mismatch risk in the truth feed.
- ToS-gray; keep the METAR fallback + obs-staleness kill-switch.
- Complements fix-resolve-twc-primary-source: TWC/weather.com is what Polymarket actually resolves on; this is a direct poll of that source.
6. °C boundary-gate degeneracy fixable for 7/8 EU cities
Same-station public tenths feeds verified live:
| Feed | Stations | Cadence / note |
|---|---|---|
| DWD 10-min | EDDM (munich) | 10-min |
| FMI | EFHK (helsinki) | open API |
| IMGW | EPWA (warsaw) | open API |
| JMA AMeDAS | RJTT (tokyo, station 44166) | 10-min, ~3–10-min lag, validated to 0.1°C |
| SYNOP via OGIMET | LFPB, EHAM, LIMC, LEMD | hourly |
- london: no SYNOP — Met Office DataHub is the unverified path. seoul: needs a KMA APIhub key.
- US already has METAR T-group tenths (KLGA
T03060217= 30.6°C). - Caveat: on EU locks the tenths gate recovers only +1–1.8pp — lock HOUR is the lever, not the gate; this fix alone did not save the EU taker lane.
7. Tick/bucket structure
- US: 2°F buckets, 0.01 tick; all non-US: 1°C buckets, 0.001 tick. negRisk=true everywhere.
Related
- weather-strategy-verdicts-2026-07-02 — the lane verdicts these corrections feed
- weather-lookahead-trap-2026-07-02 — methodology corrections from the same synthesis
- polymarket-weather-market-structure — base market-structure reference (predates today’s universe expansion)
- weather-strategy-validated-plan — original station/resolution spec
- fix-resolve-twc-primary-source — TWC-primary resolution fix
- position_manager — owns the
fee_usdfix