First read of our own btc15/eth15 observe data (332 windows each, 5 days): the fair-value model has strong signal on 15m, but the market ask ≈ the actual win rate across the entire τ curve — so there is no tradeable regime. Early NO-GO; keep the observe container banking data. This is the population read the 15m tape verdict predicted (signal is real, mechanically dead on the population).
For Agents — binding rules
- 15m signal ≠ 15m edge. The market is efficient on 15m — the ask tracks the actual win rate across the whole τ curve. Do NOT build a 15m money lane.
- Keep the btc15/eth15 observe container running (banking data). The only “maybe” is the early-τ pocket, and it is currently execution-impractical (below).
The signal is real (model works on 15m)
From 332 btc15 + 332 eth15 observe windows (5 days):
p_fairis monotonic in outcome (calibration shape is sane).- Conviction windows (
p_fair ≥ 0.80) resolve up 98% actual — high-conviction is well-founded. - Under-confident tails, just like 5m.
So the fair-value model transfers to the 15m interval. The signal is not the problem.
The economics kill it (market is efficient)
The market ask ≈ actual win rate across the ENTIRE τ curve:
- ask 0.95–0.98 vs actual 0.98–1.0;
real_edge≈ ±1% everywhere — no bin where the ask meaningfully lags the outcome.
There is no τ pocket where the ask lags reality — unlike 5m, where the [60,150)s window is exactly where the oracle-lag ask lags. On 15m the market has already priced the lag out across the board.
The two bigger apparent edges are unreliable
| Apparent edge | Why it’s not usable |
|---|---|
| <120s | execution-impractical (too little time to fire/fill through pmv2’s path) |
| 600–720s | n=290, thin, and contradicts prior tape (the competitor 15m tape) |
Verdict
15m signal ≠ edge; the market is efficient. Don’t build a 15m money lane. Keep the observe container banking data — the early-τ pocket is the only “maybe,” and it is currently execution-impractical. This closes the 15m question from our own data, consistent with the competitor-tape verdict that any 15m capture needs a fresh calibration model AND a real τ pocket the population does not offer.
Related
- crypto-shortterm-competitor-wowitsamazing-refuted-2026-07-03 — the 15m tape verdict (no +EV seed; late-window band real on his entries but −1.1¢ mechanically on the population); our observe data is the population confirmation.
- crypto-shortterm-algo-accuracy-audit-2026-07-02 — 15m benching started (
Btc15/Eth15@900s, observe-only; emit hard-refuses non-300s at boot — no 15m money path without its own gate). - crypto-shortterm-bnb-expansion-eval-2026-07-05 — 15m was flagged as the growth axis after BNB (the last 5m asset); this read closes that axis as a money lane for now.
- crypto-shortterm-backtesting — the validation bar a 15m lane would have to clear (it does not: no +EV τ pocket).
- Crypto 5m Up-Down — Oracle-Lag Strategy (Canonical Spec) — the 5m [60,150)s pocket that 15m lacks an analogue of.
- crypto-shortterm — project index.